Lucasfilm/Disney’s Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu is on a journey similar to the 2018 Memorial Day pic Solo: A Star Wars Story.

Friday and previews is looking like $34M for the Jon Favreau-directed feature (Solo did $35.3M), which will translate to about $80M 3-day and $90M over four days at 4,300 theaters. Some rivals believe the Pedro Pascal movie has a shot at $100M, but don’t count your Jawas yet. Solo, as we told you, opened to $84.4M 3-day, $103M 4-day. The audience score on Rotten Tomatoes remains fixed at 88%.

Again, the difference between this Memorial Day and last year’s is that we don’t have two tentpole openers like a year ago WITH Lilo & Stitch (record holiday start of $182.6M) and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning ($79M). Lilo & Stitch was the anomaly, and without it, well Mandalorian and Grogu is like an above-average opening for a major studio release over the holiday; not unlike Final Reckoning.

The saving grace for this net $165M production is international but also merchandise. Disney hopes that the Force is with it for a global debut of $160M.

Demos on Thursday night for Mandalorian and Grogu were 48% over 35, and 52% under 35. Dudes leading at 67%. The faithful who showed up Thursday night gave the movie a 71% definite recommend, which is very good for word of mouth. Men over 25 showed up at 48% (85% positive grade), women over 25 at 27% gave the Favreau film its best grade at 96%, followed by men under 25 at 19% (81% positive) with women under 25 the smallest demo at 6% (and a low 76% grade).

Second still belongs to the guy who is a lover, not a fighter, that being Lionsgate’s Michael at 3,306 theaters with about $5M today, a $17M–$20M fifth weekend, easing by 23%-35%, and estimated four-day of $21M-$25M and running cume of $317.2M by EOD Monday. Ya know what, the Antoine Fuqua-directed Michael Jackson biopic has to twirl past Oppenheimer at some point (final domestic $330M).

Third is Focus Features’ Obsession with an amazing 3-day hold of -1% or $17M and 4-day of $21M. The Curry Barker-directed horror movie is officially a summer sleeper with a running 11-day cume by Monday of $51.3M. We’ll take it. Smart, brilliant dating by Focus Features Distribution Head Lisa Bunnell.

Fourth goes to the fourth weekend of 20th Century Studios/Disney’s The Devil Wears Prada 2 at 3,300 sites with a $3M Friday, $10M-$11M 3-day, -37% to -43%, and $13M-$14M 4-day. This will put the running cume on the high-end on Monday at $197.5M.

Fifth is looking like Amazon MGM Studios’ third weekend of Hugh Jackman comedy The Sheep Detectives with $2M today at 3,207 theaters, $7.5M-$9M for the 3-day, -8% to -20%, with anywhere from $10M-$11M for the 4-day and a running cume by Monday of $45.3M.

Sixth is Paramount’s André Øvredal and 18Mhz horror pic Passenger with a $3M Friday/previews, $7.3M 3-day and $8.8M 4-day at 2,534 locations.

Neon’s I Love Boosters is at $1.5M today/previews, $4M 3-day, $5M for the Friday-Monday span at 1,750 sites.

In addition to 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, the pic is comping to such 4-day openers and their previews as Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World ($12M previews, $100M opening last year) and 2023’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($17.5M previews, $120.4M 4-day).

André Øvredal’s Paramount horror pic Passenger starring Melissa Leo grossed $1.1M from Thursday paid previews across roughly 2,125 locations. The pic is expected to do $9M-$10M over 4 days. Critics are low on it at 46%, and audiences aren’t wowed at 50%. The R-rated movie’s blurb: A young couple witness a horrific accident that leaves the driver dead. They soon encounter a demonic stalker who’s impossible to outrun and follows them wherever they go.

Neon’s Boots Riley movie, I Love Boosters, did $430K in total previews, $360K of that number from yesterday at 1,310 theaters. The pic is expected to do in the high single digits over 4-days. No RT audience score, but critics love the Keke Palmer, Taylour Paige, Poppy Liu, Eiza Gonzalez, Naomi Ackie satirical comedy at 92% fresh.

The week’s top 5:

1) Michael (LG) 3,560 theaters, Wk $37.5M (-29%), Total $294.1M/Wk 4

2) Obsession (Focus) 2,615 theaters, Wk $30.3M/Wk 1
The Curry Barker-directed horror romance was No. 1 for a fourth straight day with $3.3M, ahead of Michael‘s $2.4M.

3) The Devil Wears Prada 2 (20th) 3,830 theaters, Wk $25.6M (-54%), Total $183.5M/Wk 3

4) Mortal Kombat II (NL) 3,534 theaters, Wk $17.7M (-64%), Total $66.6M/Wk 2

5) The Sheep Detectives (AMZ) 3,554 theaters, Wk $14.1M (-31%), Total $34.5M/Wk 2

-Deadline