Since the start of ​the Iran war and Tehran's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz was "closed", the market has grappled to put a figure on lost crude supply ‌and to predict the price of oil.

Initial calculations were simple: add up all non-Iranian Gulf crude oil exports, some 12 million to 15 million barrels a day, and you easily have the biggest crisis in history.

Accordingly, benchmark Brent crude futures shot to nearly $120 per barrel in early March. Analysts warned it was just the beginning as forecasts of $200 hit the headlines triggering inflationary concerns for consumers and ​businesses.

Tankers dropped anchor as Iran's threats made voyages too risky, and trying to spot any tanker making a run for it was nearly impossible due ​to U.S. curbs on satellite imagery over the Gulf and ships spoofing their locations.

But tankers have escaped, ⁠some spotted by ship-tracking firms, some unseen, and as evidence comes to light, the market is adding up these volumes as it examines why oil has fallen ​below $90 despite the Iran war rumbling on, wrongfooting market bulls.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said over 100 million barrels of oil had passed through the strait as part of ​what he called a secret U.S. mission to support oil tankers.

Shipping data firm Kpler estimated that some 136 million barrels of non-Iranian crude had moved through Hormuz and Gulf of Oman export channels between the start of April and June 10, or about 1.9 million barrels a day.

"After an initial disruption at the onset of the conflict, flows strengthened as alternative logistics scaled up," Kpler ​said.

Among these "alternative logistics" have been Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE exporting large quantities of crude in tankers with their satellite systems turned off - sometimes in arrangements with Iran ​and sometimes without, according to trading sources.

-Reuters