El Niño could intensify in coming months – Department of Meteorology

The Department of Meteorology says the El Niño climate phenomenon, which has emerged in the Pacific Ocean, is currently at a weak level but could strengthen during October and November.

Director of the Forecasting Division of the Department of Meteorology, Meril Mendis, said global forecasts indicate that the developing El Niño condition could cause climate irregularities and weather changes in several countries, including Sri Lanka.

According to the department’s earlier forecasts, there is a 63% chance that El Niño could develop into a very strong phase between November this year and January 2027.

However, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has estimated a one-third possibility that the phenomenon may not intensify to that level.

Mendis said the prevailing Southwest Monsoon rainfall could be affected due to the phenomenon, although above-average rainfall is generally expected during October and November.

He added that authorities are preparing to manage water resources efficiently by considering current reservoir levels and expected rainfall patterns.

Measures will focus on ensuring the sustainable use of water for agriculture, power generation, and drinking water supplies.

Meanwhile, Environment Minister Dammika Patabendi said a special programme involving all relevant ministries will be prepared within the next two weeks to address possible challenges arising from El Niño.

The minister has also requested farmers to begin preparations for the upcoming Maha cultivation season earlier than scheduled to reduce potential losses linked to the climate phenomenon.