International28 July 2026

UK public inflation expectations ease further in July, survey shows

The British public's expectations for future inflation continued to fall in July, ​according to a survey from U.S. bank Citi ‌and pollsters YouGov that could help to reduce worries at the Bank of England about price pressures in the economy.
Expectations for inflation ​in five or more years' time, which are closely watched ​by the BoE, fell to 3.7% in July from 3.9% ⁠in June, the survey released on Tuesday showed.
Year-ahead ​expectations, which tend to be influenced by moves in short-term ​inflation and energy prices, decreased to 3.4% from 3.8%.
The BoE's policymakers routinely monitor inflation expectations for signs that price pressures could become ​embedded among consumers as well as businesses.
The surge in ​energy costs triggered by the Iran war prompted the central bank ‌to ⁠pause its run of interest rate increases earlier this year.
"Like with gas prices, there remains a risk that a delayed increase in pump prices could trigger a small ​increase in expectations," Callum ​McLaren-Stewart, an ⁠economist at Citi, said.
"But given pump prices react quickly to crude prices and the ​scale of the increase in July was ​well below ⁠what we saw in Q2, we think it is unlikely to have a meaningful impact."
A survey of British firms ⁠published ​last week showed they were planning smaller ​price and wage rises.
The BoE is expected to hold interest rates on Thursday.

-Reuters
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