OPEC+ agrees modest oil output boost even as US war on Iran disrupts shipments

OPEC+ agreed a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April on Sunday just as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and Tehran's retaliation disrupted oil flows from key members of the producer group in the Middle East.

OPEC+ has a history of raising oil output to cushion disruptions but analysts said the group currently has little spare capacity to add to supply, except for its leader Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which will also struggle to export oil until navigation in the Gulf returns to normal.

Riyadh has been increasing oil production and exports in recent weeks in preparation for U.S. strikes on OPEC+ member Iran, sources have told Reuters.

Oil, gas and other shipments from the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz have come to a halt since Saturday after ship-owners received a warning from Iran saying the area was closed for navigation. Hundreds of ships dropped anchor and were not moving on Sunday. Hormuz is the world's most important oil route accounting for over 20% of global oil transit.

$100 per barrel, said veteran OPEC analyst Helima Croft from RBC. Analysts from Barclays also said prices could rise to $100.

Croft said the market impact from any OPEC output increase will be limited due to a lack of production capabilities outside Saudi Arabia.

The meeting on Sunday involved only eight members of OPEC+ - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman.

OPEC+ groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia but most production changes in the past years have been done by the eight members.

The eight members raised production quotas by about 2.9 million bpd from April through December 2025, roughly 3% of global demand, before pausing increases for January to March 2026 due to seasonal weakness.

Source - Reuters