El Nino powers up and rainier winter for the US South

An intensifying El Nino, nature’s heat-releasing thermostat that spikes global temperatures, is heading to historically strong levels, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.

In its monthly update, NOAA said this year’s El Nino, a natural warming of the equatorial Pacific that alters weather patterns across the globe, has an 81% chance of becoming “very strong” — the top category available — by fall. It should rank among the most intense El Ninos since the weather agency started tracking them in 1950.

Its biggest impacts — from droughts to downpours to heat waves — are likely to be most felt in the fall and winter, meteorologists said.

This El Nino, which formed only last month, already zipped past the weak stage and is now considered moderate with no indications of slowing its strengthening, the government forecast said. Ocean temperatures in key parts of the Pacific that help indicate the El Nino’s strength are at or near record highs for this time of year, partly because it comes on top of ocean warming from human-caused climate change, meteorologists said.

“It’s pretty extreme,” said Emily Becker, a University of Miami scientist who works with the NOAA El Nino forecast team. “Not unprecedented, but very unusual.”

Becker said it will rival the 1997-1998 El Nino, while other meteorologists predict this one could be even stronger. The World Bank said the El Nino that started in 1997 led to 23,000 deaths in weather disasters, increased poverty rates in some countries and cost governments as much as $45 billion.

-AP