Barclays warns oil prices could surge to USD 150 a barrel over Hormuz impasses

Barclays said on Friday that risks to its oil price ​forecasts are skewed higher depending on how ‌long the "impasse" over the Strait of Hormuz lasts.

In a scenario in which the current situation lasts for another one, two, ​or three months, Barclays thinks there could ​be a $2 per barrel, $7/bbl or $10/bbl upside risk, respectively, ⁠to its $96/bbl 2026 Brent forecast.

Oil prices spiked to $100 ​a barrel for the first time since May this ​week, as renewed hostilities revived investor worries over global supply disruptions from a near-halt in trade through the Strait of Hormuz. ​Oil prices eased to just below $100 on Friday.

"As ​is generally the case, spot price will likely lead the ‌move ⁠and could test $150/bbl in the 3-months scenario," the bank said in a note.

The Strait of Hormuz was the main transit route for around a fifth of ​global energy supplies ​before the ⁠conflict began.

Earlier this month, Barclays maintained its $96/bbl and $85/bbl Brent forecasts for 2026 and 2027, ​respectively.

The conflict has deepened forecasts of a global ​oil ⁠deficit in 2026, according to a Reuters poll of analysts, but recovering Gulf flows, robust U.S. production and ⁠weaker ​demand from China are expected ​to tip the market into an oversupply in 2027.

-Reuters