Milinda Moragoda warns of new world order shaped by disruption, shifting alliances

Former Cabinet Minister and diplomat Milinda Moragoda, founder of the Pathfinder Foundation, has cautioned that the world is entering an era of unprecedented geopolitical turbulence, where nations can no longer rely on fixed rules or predictable alignments.

In an article published in the Hindustan Times, Moragoda stated that “countries must now manage constant disruptions and continually recalibrate their positions amid ever-shifting geopolitical circumstances.” He added, “In this emerging order, there are no guarantees and few enduring norms.”

Moragoda highlighted that the accelerating pace of technological change has intensified this volatility. “Digital dependencies have created new vulnerabilities,” he explained. “Cyber warfare can cripple infrastructure, artificial intelligence blurs the line between civilian and military applications, and global data and semiconductor supply chains expose nations to coercion.”

Even social media, once seen as a force for democratisation, has become a “theatre of disinformation and destabilisation,” he warned. These technological accelerants, he argued, spread geopolitical turbulence faster, leaving countries with less time to adapt.

“If this trajectory holds, the post-war multilateral order will give way to a new framework in which realpolitik dominates,” Moragoda cautioned. “Smaller states will face stark choices. Non-alignment will not suffice; instead, they may need to pursue ‘smart multiple alignments,’ hedging their bets while acknowledging the realities of great-power spheres of influence.”

He concluded that while the post-1945 order is fading, nations—particularly India—have the opportunity to shape what comes next. “India’s challenge will be to consolidate its status as a strategic hub in the Indo-Pacific while helping to anchor the world in a balance of power tempered by principle,” Moragoda said.